Egg price or will open seasonal decline, Sina fund exposure desk: letter Phi lag false propaganda, performance is lower than the same product for a long time, buy fund by pit how to do? Click on [I want to complain], Sina help you expose them! After the Mid Autumn Festival in 2016, the short-term demand for eggs is increasing, and the supply of eggs tends to increase. Overall, the current supply and demand of eggs tend to loose, the medium-term supply pressure gradually appear; in the absence of other unexpected benefits appear, the expected egg price or will open seasonal downward trend. 1. egg supply is sufficient, 2016 layers and the number of eggs in the same period in previous years are at a higher level. According to the market survey data of the laying hens in the national representative areas in August, the total population of hens in August 2016 was 1 billion 315 million, down 0.3% from July, an increase of 10.13% compared with the same period of last year. From the main egg producing areas in the country, except for a slight decrease in the number of laying hens in Hubei, the other major producing areas of chicken breeding stocks were significantly increased compared with the same period last year. From the age structure of laying hens, laying hens focus areas of peak ratio, this layer also accounted for from the beginning of this year increased; last year and early this year Bulan hens began to enter the peak of egg production, it will maintain a relatively high level in the next few months, egg laying rate, increase the supply pressure. 2. egg demand is weak, the current domestic macroeconomic in China "adjust structure, destocking" stage, but also in the key period of deleveraging and production capacity, so the overall inflation level is difficult to rebound sharply. In this stage, with the supply side reform, enterprises to close some capacity, shrink the balance sheet, which will increase the unemployment rate, leading to the decline in the expected income of residents, so consumption will be adversely affected. Specifically for egg consumption, this year’s Mid Autumn Festival National Day and the end of the school year, the food factory stocking finished, the market demand weakened; coupled with exports to slow down, domestic support is weak, the production of large areas of farming households, production is not in stock. At present, because of the terminal link has more inventory, and food factory and supermarket procurement volume reduced, the egg market as a whole to slow down the goods, the overall demand is general. In late September 2016, due to the demand side without big positive stimulus, egg demand is flat, most areas reflect slow freight, the national traders bearish expectations are strong. 3. feed cost is expected to decline to suppress egg prices mainly for laying hens feed corn and soybean, and the corn and soybean meal prices expected strong. By the state had no intention to continue the strong backing, throwing reserve to continue until the end of October (next year will continue to put pressure on the new season of throwing storage), corn market and so on supply factors, coupled with the government to reduce the cost of corn corn subsidies and other factors, the price of corn is expected in the next few months or will remain weak trend. At the same time, due to the strong market for the year 1617 soybean yield expectations, soybean meal prices under strong pressure. Therefore, due to a strong decline in the price of corn and soybean meal prices expected, still significant uncertainty, to suppress the formation of the cost of laying hens egg prices bearish expectations. 4. market analysis and investment suggestion from chicken theory

鸡蛋价格或将开启季节性下跌 新浪基金曝光台:信披滞后虚假宣传,业绩长期低于同类产品,买基金被坑怎么办?点击【我要投诉】,新浪帮你曝光他们!   2016年中秋节之后,鸡蛋短期需求增长结束,同时鸡蛋供给量趋于增加。整体来看,目前鸡蛋的供需关系趋于宽松,中期供应压力逐渐显现;在没有其他突发性利多出现的情况下,预计后市鸡蛋期价或将开启季节性下跌走势。1.鸡蛋供应充足   2016年蛋鸡存栏和在产蛋鸡数量与往年同期相比均处于较高位水平。根据市场8月全国代表地区产蛋鸡存栏调研数据看,2016年8月全国产蛋鸡总存栏量为13.15亿只,较7月下降0.3%,同比增加10.13%。从全国主要鸡蛋产区看,除去湖北地区产蛋鸡存栏略有下降外,其他主产区产蛋鸡存栏均较去年同期明显增加。而从蛋鸡日龄结构看,重点产区产蛋高峰期的蛋鸡占比高,这部分蛋鸡占比也从今年年初不断提高;去年及今年年初补栏的蛋鸡开始进入产蛋高峰期,其在未来几个月产蛋率将维持比较高的水平,增大鸡蛋供给压力。2.鸡蛋需求疲弱   当前中国国内宏观经济处于“调结构,去库存”的阶段,也处于去杠杆、去产能的关键时期,因此整体通胀水平难以大幅回升。在这阶段中,随着供给端改革,企业要关闭部分产能,收缩资产负债表,相应地会引起失业率增加,导致居民收入预期下滑,从而消费便会受到负面影响。具体对鸡蛋消费而言,今年中秋国庆备货季结束及高校开学之后,食品厂备货结束,市场需求减弱;加上外销走货放缓,内销支撑乏力,产区养殖户出货量大,生产环节不在存货。目前由于终端环节多有存货,加之食品厂及超市采购量减少,鸡蛋市场整体走货放缓,整体需求一般。2016年9月下旬,由于需求面无大利好刺激,鸡蛋需求表现平淡,大部分地区反映走货慢,全国贸易商看跌预期强烈。3.饲料成本预期下降压制蛋价   蛋鸡饲料主要是构成为玉米和豆粕,而当前玉米和豆粕价格下跌预期较强。受到国家无意继续强势托底,抛储继续至10月底(明年仍将延续抛储),新季玉米集中上市等等供给因素施压下,加之政府对玉米种植补贴降低玉米成本等因素影响下,玉米价格预计在未来几个月内或将维持偏弱的走势。同时,由于当前市场对16 17年度美豆丰产预期强烈,豆粕价格上涨受到较强的压力。因此,由于玉米价格有较强的下跌预期,而豆粕价格上涨仍存明显的不确定性,蛋鸡养殖成本偏空预期对蛋价形成压制。4.行情分析及投资建议   从鸡蛋价格的季节性走势上分析,每年夏季蛋价往往出现季节性上涨,鸡蛋现货价格高点往往出现在9月初前后。然而,今年中秋节在9月15日,相对于过去要提前,鸡蛋节前备货也将提前一些结束。目前进入9月下旬后,鸡蛋基本面的供求关系已经明显趋于宽松,而外部也没有出现支撑蛋价的其他利多因素。因此,鸡蛋期现价格或将由此开启季节性下跌趋势,直至2016年年底。   技术上分析,鸡蛋主力1701合约从8月下旬后一直横盘震荡与3300-3450区间之内而尚未反应出基本面的趋空变化;随着时间推移,内外环境将越来越对空头资金有利,期价或将下破3300关口而下移至3000-3300区间波动。(倍特期货)   农产品集购网16988-全国大宗农产品电商交易平台;【白糖、油脂、玉米、大豆、小麦、棉花、豆粕】免费资源发布、采购对接;报价-下点击前往报价,查看大宗农产品行情 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: